NFL betting 2020 Knowing how to adjust l

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In Week 2 of the 2019 season, the Saints watched starting quarterback Drew Brees go down with an injury that would ultimately keep him sidelined for five more games. The Saints, who were one-point underdogs to the Seahawks in Week 3 on the lookahead line before Brees' injury, wound up entering their first matchup with at the helm as five-point underdogs. Despite pulling off that upset win, the Saints would end up closing as underdogs in four of their five matchups without Brees Michael Jordan Jersey (including in Jacksonville for some reason?). They went 5-0 straight up and against the spread with Bridgewater at quarterback.Let's talk about that line movement around Brees' injury. In simplest terms, a suming no other factors went into moving the line for the Week 3 matchup against Seattle, the market priced Brees' injury at four points, because the line was Seattle -1 pre-injury and Seattle -5 by kickoff of the game. Bettors who believed the drop-off from Brees to Bridgewater wasn't as steep as the market suggested were rewarded handsomely when the Saints continued to win and cover despite the lo s of their star quarterback.In Week 7, the eventual champion Chiefs had a similar situation play out, with reigning league MVP suffering an injury that kept him out for the team's next two games. Before the injury, the lookahead line for Week 8 had the Chiefs as four-point favorites at home against the Packers; however, by kickoff, the Packers found themselves as five-point favorites before eventually winning the game by seven points.Again, stripping all other considerations away, the simple calculation by the public was that the Jose Abreu Jersey drop-off from Mahomes to backup was worth nine points (from Kansas City -4 to Kansas City +5). However, anyone that priced that difference between quarterback as higher likely bet on the Packers and wound up cashing. These are two examples of why it's worth being ready to take advantage of quarterback injuries in real time. When you have weekly line projections ready to go via and , you're already in a position to scoop up any line value present when the books open their numbers for the following week's games each Sunday. But if you've already done the homework on quarterback injuries ahead of time, you might be able to score an even better number as books try and gue s where the market will settle on the injury.Take the Andrew Luck retirement last August. As I reported from Las Vegas last offseason, about how much the drop-off from Luck to was worth. The Colts were 3.5-point or four-point underdogs in many places before the news (which did have some uncertainty about Luck already priced into the line, as the line was only -3 earlier in the offseason). The first book to re-open the matchup had the Chargers at six-point favorites and saw their line quickly bet up to Chargers -7.5. Another book that re-opened 30 minutes after the first book hung Chargers -9.5 and saw that number quickly bet down to Chargers -7.5. The Chargers ended up winning by six in overtime, suggesting the drop in quarterback wasn't as severe as expected (which makes sense, as Bri sett had practiced all offseason with the first unit, giving him a leg up on backups that have just a week to prepare as the starter due to a midseason injury).Every time a starting quarterback suffers an injury during an season, bettors have to determine how much that lo s will impact the team's betting lines moving forward. Below, I've gone team by team and listed my adjustment for each Danny Mendick Jersey potential injury. Unlike with my home-field advantage data, this proce s is le s scientific and more done by feel. If, for example, you have some reliable data that tells you why to (or vice versa) is actually a ma sive drop-off, feel free to lean on that and make your own adjustments accordingly. After the table, I'll go division by division and give brief reasoning for each number. TeamWk 1 RtgProj. QB1Proj. QB2AdjustARI0-6.5ATL-1-6.5BAL7-7.5BUF2-4CAR-6.5Teddy BridgewaterP.J. Walker-4CHI-1Mitchell TrubiskyNick Foles0CIN-5-5CLE-1.5-3DAL3-3DEN-1.5-3.5DET-3-7.5GB1.5-10HOU1-9IND0Jacoby Bri sett -1JAC-4-3.5KC7Patrick Mahomes-9LV-1-2LAC-1-3LAR1-7.5MIA-3.5-2MIN1.5-7NE0-4NO6Drew Brees-3NYG-4.5-4NYJ-4-3.5PHI3-7.5PIT3-8SF3-2.5SEA2-10TB1.5-7TEN2-7.5WAS-7 Dwayne Haskins-2 :Matt Barkley did a great job filling in one week for Josh Allen in 2018, but we can't expect the Bills offense to just keep humming along if Allen goes down. I had this gap at 1.5 points last year, but Allen has earned Matt Davidson Jersey enough respect to bump the number up by a few points. :It's entirely po sible enters the season as the backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and if that's the case I'd put a much bigger number on this team (likely six points). But if Fitzpatrick can stay healthy for the first part of the season and Tua Tagovailoa develops enough to take over the No. 2 job, we're probably looking at a gap of just a couple points. If a QB change is made later in the season because Miami thinks Tagovailoa is ready to start rather than Fitzpatrick suffering an injury, that probably means this number has fallen to zero. :The Patriots still have plenty to decide in the QB room, but our projections here a sume Cam Newton is healthy enough to start. could still wind up the No. 2 option, but we're figuring the Patriots go with the reliable Brian Hoyer instead. If Stidham were to win the starting job, we'd likely have our number at zero with Newton as the backup, a suming the latter isn't healthy enough to inspire confidence. But once a change is made, our numbers would be similar to how we have them here, with our rating increasing once it appears Newton has settled into the offense. : Joe Flacco isn't going to be ready to start the year, so if Sam Darnold is forced out early, the Jets could be in big trouble and staring at a drop-off of a touchdown or more on their QB rating. Flacco's experience is enough to make him an upgrade over Trevor Siemian at this point last season. :RGIII is a solid backup, but Lamar Jackson took his game to a new level last year while winning the MVP award. I had this gap at 6.5 points last year, and the only reason I'm bumping it just a point to 7.5 is that I trust the coaching staff to come up with a gameplan to win in the event of a quarterback injury, as Baltimore has one of the best staffs around. That's a key le son here: Our number doesn't just reflect the drop in talent from one QB to another, but also the context of the team around him. :We don't want to get too aggre sive with our number here, as we've yet to see Joe Burrow on the field in an NFL uniform. But Ryan Finley was so bad replacing Andy Dalton last year that it feels like I've got to make my number steeper here than I did with Kyler Murray in a Luke Appling Jersey similar situation last August, so I did by a half-point. Maybe emerges as the QB2 and his experience with head coach Zac Taylor pays off, but for no