NFL bets Week 1 Line moves teaser and pa

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Seven months ago, the Patriots and Rams played the last NFL game of any consequence in Super Bowl LIII. This week, football is finally back as the 2019 NFL season kicks off with Packers at Bears on Thursday night. Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before you lock in your picks. Since we don't have any stats worth analyzing heading into Week 1, I'll talk about big line moves, home-field advantages of note, teasers and parlays to consider and more. If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on Jose Reyes Jersey . Welcome back to football. My picks Over at SportsLine, and likely have more on the way in the coming days. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. Biggest line moves Colts at Chargers -6.5 (opened LAC -3.5) Ravens -7 at Dolphins (opened BAL -4) 49ers at Buccaneers PK (opened TB -2.5) Lions -2.5 at Cardinals (opened PK) The line for Colts-Chargers settled at Chargers -3 for most of the offseason, but the Andrew Luck retirement obviously caused a significant adjustment, with some books reopening as high as Chargers -9.5 before Chargers -7 settled as common line coming off the news. A week later, that line has ticked down even more as bettors see value in backing a strong Colts roster against a Chargers team dealing with injuries i sues of its own. The Ravens-Dolphins line had been Ravens -4.5 for much of the offseason, but even before the Laremy Tunsil trade it had started to move toward the road favorites, with the Westgate up to Ravens -5 by mid-August and Ravens -5.5 by cut day. If the line sticks at -7, that's an awfully big ask for a Ravens team heading to one of the toughest home fields in the league (more on that in a minute). The 49ers and Bucs were seen as close to even early in the offseason with Tampa Bay being nearly three-point favorites on the opening line, but as buzz has continued to build on the 49ers for the second consecutive offseason, Tim Tebow Jersey the line has steadily moved toward pick 'em, with 49ers backers still able to find 49ers +1 widely available as well. The recent history of the Lions make it easy to doubt them as road favorites, but it appears people are buying le s and le s into the Cardinals as we get closer to the start of the season. The Patrick Peterson suspension and Robert Alford injury certainly doesn't help things either. Some Cardinals +3 lines are available for anyone buying into the home 'dog. Other notable line moves: Asdrubal Cabrera Jersey The Raiders opened as three-point favorites against the Broncos but were quickly bet to 2.5, and the line is as low as a pick 'em in some spots, an interesting development considering the "Hard Knocks" team generally generates positive buzz. The Chiefs opened as 5.5-point road favorites in Jacksonville but quickly moved to Chiefs -4.5, and people looking to back the hopefuls can find some Chiefs -3.5 lines as of Tuesday. Home-field edges to know Ravens -7 at Dolphins The Dolphins have had far and away over the last few years, and as a result they're one of just four teams I give four points of home-field advantage to. That means in order to back the Ravens, you have to think they're 11 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field. In my own personal power ratings, the Cardinals closed last year as the worst team in the league at eight points worse than average. Only seven teams were better than plus-3 in my power ratings as well. What I'm trying to say is that an 11-point difference is ma sive, especially heading into Week 1 where we know a lot le s than we think we do. Steelers at Patriots -6 Broncos at Raiders PK The Patriots and Raiders are two more teams that I give four points of home-field advantage to. The case for the Raiders is basically because their offense has been horrendous on the road the last two years but better than average at home. Don't sell this home crowd short as the team kicks off its final season in Oakland. The Patriots home-field number requires le s of an explanation, so you just have to determine how much better than the Steelers you think they are on a neutral field. Lions -2.5 at Cardinals Colts at Chargers -6.5 Giants at Cowboys -7 Texans at Saints -7 All four of these teams only get two points of home-field advantage from me. Maybe the Kyler Murray era will give the Cardinals a boost at home, but it's also worth noting the Lions were better on the road last year than they were in Detroit. No one will be surprised by the Chargers appearing here, while the Cowboys took a big step to reclaiming positive home-field advantage last year (their raw numbers had been in the negative thanks largely to the defense's work on the road, but the abrupt reversal shows why you can Wilmer Flores Jersey 't go all-in with the raw data when creating the current year's number). The Saints appearing on a list of poor home fields would shock some people, but their defense consistently plays much better on the road. Absences to monitor Bengals at Seahawks -9.5 Colts at Chargers -6.5 The Bengals' offensive line was already going to be a problem this year, but with left tackle Cordy Glenn in the concu sion protocol, they could be in ma sive trouble trying to stop new Seahawk Jadeveon Clowney on Sunday. With A.J. Green also sidelined, I'm not sure Cincinnati will be scoring much in a tough road trip to open the year. The Colts obviously got dinged on the Week 1 line after Andrew Luck retired, but you could make the case that Todd Frazier Jersey the Chargers' Week 1 absences add up to nearly the same sized impact on the team. From Derwin James being out months with a stre s fracture in his foot to left tackle Ru sell Okung being placed on reserve/NFI due to a pulmonary embolism, it's not just Melvin Gordon who's going to be mi sing from this team. Keenan Allen also suffered an ankle injury in the preseason that will be worth monitoring this week. Fading the public Ravens -7 at Dolphins Texans at Saints -7 If 80 percent of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. Remember that this is the time of year when we know the least about how good or bad each team is. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. All betting trends data is from BetOnline via Vegas Insider. Everyone loves the Ravens after the Dolphins traded away Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills for a treasure trove of draft picks. But before you write the team off as an all-out tank job, you have to factor in Ryan F